Regular season

Gage Goncalves

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #93

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?33 points in 74 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'1"
WT: 189 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Mission, CAN
Draft: 2020 TBL · R2 #62

61Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3434pctl

3838pctl

2222pctl

3434pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4552pctl

0.1538pctl

0.3063pctl

1.024pctl

+2698pctl

241pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.9%42pctl

1.1025pctl

0.0310pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2526pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

0.37pctl

0.3137pctl

0:5950pctl

0:1336pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 44 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

55.1%87pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

64.2%95pctl

O-zone deployment?

56%75pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.2 min38pctl

Support received?

17.8 min34pctl

D-zone deployment?

44%25pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0430pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7445pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1822pctl

1.00×57pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.16/gm74pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.2%36pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 880 EV min

General Offense

4.4323

6.2723

Shot Setups/60?

0.7534

Chance Setups/60?

0.4826

Primary Contributions/60?

5.1823

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4144

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1476

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6156

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1420

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0019

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.9525

Rush Offense/60?

6.1426

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.2715

0.3415

0.1447

Deflections/60?

1.9878

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0737

Entries Finished/60?

0.5532

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2019

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5073

0.2750

1.2375

Retrieval Success %?

18%32

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%31

Forechecking

4.7063

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.20M

cap hit

$2.24M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Gage Goncalves	61	Depth Forward	33 P · 74 GP	$1.20M	$2.24M	B+$1.0M	this player
Nicolas Roy	60	Depth Forward	25 P · 74 GP	$3.00M	$2.03M	D−$1.0M	87%
Robby Fabbri	61	Depth Forward	5 P · 21 GP	-	$2.24M	-	87%
Oliver Moore	61	Depth Forward	19 P · 51 GP	$0.94M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	86%
Dominic James	63	Depth Forward	15 P · 43 GP	$0.91M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nikita Kucherov · 9 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Gage’s goals

Creates for

goals Gage assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 0 G · 4 A · 8 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:08 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:43 TOI

vs PIT

2P

0G 2A

vs PIT 04-02

0G 2A · 1 shots · 15:43 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:14 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:17 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:52 TOI

@ MTL

1P

0G 1A

@ MTL 04-09

0G 1A · 2 shots · 18:19 TOI

@ BOS

1P

0G 1A

@ BOS 04-11

0G 1A · 1 shots · 14:04 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:10 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:56 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)152 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 5 of 11 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 14 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 38 blocks · 5 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	2	0	0	0	0
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	60	8	12	20	7
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	74	11	22	33	26
Career	1 team	136	19	34	53	33