Regular season

Leo Carlsson

Anaheim Ducks · C · #91

First-line playerTop-Six Threat?67 points in 70 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'3"
WT: 208 lb
Age: 21
Shoots: L
From: Karlstad, SWE
Draft: 2023 ANA · R1 #2

87Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8383pctl

8888pctl

8383pctl

5959pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.9692pctl

0.4191pctl

0.5491pctl

2.892pctl

+473pctl

1884pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

10%88pctl

3.8593pctl

0.4299pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4349pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

44.4%21pctl

D-Zone FO %?

41.5%16pctl

13.984pctl

0.4474pctl

3:2892pctl

0:5351pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 43 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.4%72pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

45.6%32pctl

O-zone deployment?

66%97pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min73pctl

Support received?

18.7 min12pctl

D-zone deployment?

34%3pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.2199pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3176pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6494pctl

1.03×76pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.27/gm30pctl

Pressure escape rate?

10.5%92pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1036 EV min

General Offense

7.3580

9.9078

Shot Setups/60?

1.3982

Chance Setups/60?

0.9872

Primary Contributions/60?

8.7482

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7582

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2387

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.8777

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3555

Deflection Setups/60?

0.1788

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.4189

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6262

Rush Offense/60?

9.9078

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9878

1.0471

0.1241

Deflections/60?

1.2744

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1764

Entries Finished/60?

0.8763

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.8183

Entry → Chance %?

93%90

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4570

0.5279

0.9356

Retrieval Success %?

36%75

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0666

Exit Success %?

4%57

Forechecking

0.9313

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.1287

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.95M

cap hit

$10.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$9.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Leo Carlsson	87	Top-Six Threat	67 P · 70 GP	$0.95M	$10.09M	A++$9.1M	this player
Tim Stützle	87	Sniper	83 P · 80 GP	$8.35M	$10.09M	B+$1.7M	89%
Jake Guentzel	90	Dual Threat	88 P · 81 GP	$9.00M	$11.21M	A+$2.2M	88%
Sidney Crosby	87	Top-Six Threat	74 P · 68 GP	$8.70M	$10.09M	B+$1.4M	88%
Mathew Barzal	84	Playmaker	72 P · 81 GP	$9.15M	$9.00M	C−$0.2M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Troy Terry · 21 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Leo’s goals

Creates for

goals Leo assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 5 G · 1 A · 39 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 03-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:22 TOI

vs TOR

2P

2G 0A

vs TOR 03-30

2G 0A · 4 shots · 18:46 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-01

0G 0A · 5 shots · 19:48 TOI

vs STL

0P

0G 0A

vs STL 04-03

0G 0A · 4 shots · 17:47 TOI

vs CGY

1P

1G 0A

vs CGY 04-04

1G 0A · 3 shots · 20:06 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:45 TOI

vs SJS

1P

1G 0A

vs SJS 04-09

1G 0A · 4 shots · 15:44 TOI

vs VAN

1P

1G 0A

vs VAN 04-12

1G 0A · 3 shots · 17:58 TOI

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ MIN 04-14

0G 0A · 6 shots · 21:00 TOI

@ NSH

1P

0G 1A

@ NSH 04-16

0G 1A · 7 shots · 18:32 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)631 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 9 of 29 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 36 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 36 blocks · 16 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Anaheim Ducks	55	12	17	29	-11
2024-25	Anaheim Ducks	76	20	25	45	6
2025-26	Anaheim Ducks	70	29	38	67	4
Career	1 team	201	61	80	141	-1