HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Zemgus Girgensons

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #28
Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 195 hits (10.7/60)
HT
6'3"
WT
197 lb
Age
32
Shoots
L
From
Riga, LVA
Draft
2012 BUF · R1 #14
60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
3737pctl
Playmaking?
4040pctl
Transition?
3131pctl
Defense?
4747pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.2729pctl
Goals / GP?
0.1229pctl
Assists / GP?
0.1526pctl
Shots / GP?
1.235pctl
Plus/Minus?
+163pctl
PP Points?
016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
4.7%52pctl
ZEIS?
1.3434pctl
PSPL?
0.1355pctl
Def Suppression?
0.4958pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
44.6%22pctl
D-Zone FO %?
42.1%18pctl
Draws / GP
3.028pctl
Take : Give?
0.146pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:0213pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:5682pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 11h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.7 min70pctl
Support received?
17.2 min51pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 947 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.88M

cap hit

$2.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Zemgus Girgensons60$0.88MB+$1.2Mthis player
Otto Stenberg60$0.92MB+$1.1M91%
Yanni Gourde61$2.33MC$0.1M91%
Peyton Krebs64$1.45MB+$1.5M88%
Nicolas Roy60$3.00MD$1.0M88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Yanni Gourde · 10 goals together

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 1 G · 4 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs OTT

1P

0G 1A

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

1P

0G 1A

vs PIT

1P

1G 0A

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs DET

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)251 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 5 of 9 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 15 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 51 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2013-14Buffalo Sabres7081422-6
2014-15Buffalo Sabres61151530-16
2015-16Buffalo Sabres71711180
2016-17Buffalo Sabres757916-7
2017-18Buffalo Sabres717815-12
2018-19Buffalo Sabres7251318-11
2019-20Buffalo Sabres6912719-1
2021-22Buffalo Sabres5610818-7
2022-23Buffalo Sabres8010818-5
2023-24Buffalo Sabres638614-1
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning82246-7
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning74911201
Career2 teams844100114214-72