Regular season

Nick Perbix

Nashville Predators · D · #48

Depth DDepth Defenseman?95 blocks in 79 games of hard minutes

HT: 6'4"
WT: 206 lb
Age: 28
Shoots: R
From: Elk River, USA
Draft: 2017 TBL · R6 #169

59Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4646pctl

2828pctl

3333pctl

3333pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.1619pctl

0.0435pctl

0.1319pctl

1.043pctl

-1410pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.3%23pctl

0.477pctl

0.0728pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1213pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.2041pctl

3.7738pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

5.035pctl

1.221pctl

0.2442pctl

0:0438pctl

2:5394pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 15h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.2%29pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.5%41pctl

O-zone deployment?

48%41pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min72pctl

Support received?

16.7 min68pctl

D-zone deployment?

52%59pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0425pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2215pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1823pctl

0.97×36pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.35/gm11pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.9%51pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1276 EV min

General Offense

3.2441

3.2454

Shot Setups/60?

0.6635

Chance Setups/60?

0.5232

Primary Contributions/60?

3.9039

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1926

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0983

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4258

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1959

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0569

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0534

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2726

Rush Offense/60?

5.1338

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3360

0.2860

0.0548

Deflections/60?

0.0544

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0566

Entries Finished/60?

0.1929

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0531

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

3.6286

0.5669

3.0685

Retrieval Success %?

16%42

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0576

Exit Success %?

1%67

Forechecking

0.3848

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.75M

cap hit

$1.91M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$0.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nick Perbix	59	Depth Defenseman	13 P · 79 GP	$2.75M	$1.91M	D−$0.8M	this player
Niko Mikkola	57	Depth Defenseman	11 P · 68 GP	$2.50M	$1.51M	D−$1.0M	91%
Ryker Evans	58	Depth Defenseman	17 P · 67 GP	$2.05M	$1.70M	C−$0.3M	90%
Shakir Mukhamadullin	59	Depth Defenseman	12 P · 50 GP	$1.00M	$1.91M	B+$0.9M	90%
Nick Jensen	61	Depth Defenseman	17 P · 61 GP	$4.05M	$2.35M	D−$1.7M	88%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Nick’s goals

Creates for

goals Nick assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 0 G · 3 A · 10 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 12:00 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:48 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:02 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 23:55 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-06

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:26 TOI

@ ANA

1P

0G 1A

@ ANA 04-07

0G 1A · 2 shots · 22:12 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 21:44 TOI

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs MIN 04-11

0G 1A · 1 shots · 15:08 TOI

vs SJS

1P

0G 1A

vs SJS 04-13

0G 1A · 0 shots · 16:15 TOI

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA 04-16

0G 0A · 0 shots · 21:40 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)299 events shown

The office: the left circle - 2 of 3 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 95 blocks · 16 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Tampa Bay Lightning	69	5	15	20	11
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	77	2	22	24	8
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	74	6	13	19	8
2025-26	Nashville Predators	79	3	10	13	-14
Career	2 teams	299	16	60	76	13