Regular season

Ilya Lyubushkin

Nashville Predators · D · #46

Depth DDepth Defenseman?90 blocks in 53 games of hard minutes

HT: 6'2"
WT: 206 lb
Age: 32
Shoots: R
From: Moscow, RUS

60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

1818pctl

3838pctl

1111pctl

5959pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.1720pctl

0.0215pctl

0.1528pctl

0.68pctl

+151pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

0.9%3pctl

-0.321pctl

0.0937pctl

Def Suppression?

0.6876pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.7080pctl

6.4796pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

8.595pctl

4.978pctl

0.2026pctl

0:0111pctl

1:2848pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 31 GP tracked · 8h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

43.7%11pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.6%68pctl

O-zone deployment?

34%8pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.0 min23pctl

Support received?

16.1 min89pctl

D-zone deployment?

66%92pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0428pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.051pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1311pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm46pctl

Pressure escape rate?

5.1%5pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 756 EV min

General Offense

2.4619

1.5113

Shot Setups/60?

0.5627

Chance Setups/60?

0.4023

Primary Contributions/60?

3.0219

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4870

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0033

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.1617

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0018

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0021

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.4012

Rush Offense/60?

3.8917

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.2442

0.2451

0.0861

Deflections/60?

0.0025

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0033

Entries Finished/60?

0.0818

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0842

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

3.0266

0.1616

2.8676

Retrieval Success %?

5%15

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Exit Success %?

0%38

Forechecking

0.2431

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.25M

cap hit

$2.12M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Ilya Lyubushkin	60	Depth Defenseman	9 P · 53 GP	$3.25M	$2.12M	D−$1.1M	this player
Alec Regula	61	Depth Defenseman	3 P · 29 GP	$0.81M	$2.35M	B+$1.5M	89%
Ty Emberson	63	Depth Defenseman	12 P · 72 GP	$1.30M	$2.83M	B+$1.5M	87%
Nikolas Matinpalo	60	Depth Defenseman	5 P · 50 GP	$0.88M	$2.12M	B+$1.2M	86%
Vincent Iorio	60	Depth Defenseman	3 P · 27 GP	$0.81M	$2.12M	B+$1.3M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Mavrik Bourque · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Ilya’s goals

Creates for

goals Ilya assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 5 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 03-06

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:20 TOI

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 03-22

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:04 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:53 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:00 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:53 TOI

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY 04-07

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:29 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:08 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:40 TOI

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:48 TOI

@ BUF

1P

0G 1A

@ BUF 04-15

0G 1A · 1 shots · 15:39 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)168 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 7 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 90 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Arizona Coyotes	41	0	4	4	-9
2019-20	Arizona Coyotes	51	0	4	4	4
2020-21	Arizona Coyotes	42	1	1	2	-13
2021-22	Arizona Coyotes	46	0	9	9	-6
2021-22	Toronto Maple Leafs	31	2	4	6	4
2022-23	Buffalo Sabres	68	2	12	14	-2
2023-24	Anaheim Ducks	55	0	4	4	-13
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	19	0	4	4	2
2024-25	Dallas Stars	80	1	13	14	5
2025-26	Dallas Stars	53	1	8	9	1
Career	5 teams	486	7	63	70	-27