Regular season

Justin Hryckowian

Dallas Stars · C · #49

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?30 points in 81 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'11"
WT: 198 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: L'Ile-Bizard, CAN

63Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4040pctl

4747pctl

2020pctl

8787pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.3741pctl

0.1746pctl

0.2040pctl

1.023pctl

+163pctl

555pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.5%49pctl

1.1226pctl

0.1459pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7581pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

55.1%85pctl

D-Zone FO %?

53.3%71pctl

4.233pctl

1.0499pctl

0:3842pctl

1:1760pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 11h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

50.6%57pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

51.2%58pctl

O-zone deployment?

45%29pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min46pctl

Support received?

17.3 min47pctl

D-zone deployment?

55%71pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0967pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.1970pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4373pctl

0.93×17pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm46pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.1%33pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 922 EV min

General Offense

4.7529

5.9219

Shot Setups/60?

0.7837

Chance Setups/60?

0.5228

Primary Contributions/60?

5.5329

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6573

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1374

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5952

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1320

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.2680

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.7818

Rush Offense/60?

5.0815

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7862

1.1776

0.0729

Deflections/60?

1.3046

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1354

Entries Finished/60?

0.5937

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3333

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.8528

0.5279

0.3314

Retrieval Success %?

62%90

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0769

Exit Success %?

8%75

Forechecking

5.4767

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0782

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.87M

cap hit

$2.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Justin Hryckowian	63	Depth Forward	30 P · 81 GP	$0.87M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	this player
Adam Henrique	61	Depth Forward	15 P · 65 GP	-	$2.24M	-	82%
Adam Lowry	60	Depth Forward	21 P · 70 GP	$3.25M	$2.03M	D−$1.2M	81%
Marat Khusnutdinov	63	Depth Forward	33 P · 77 GP	$0.93M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	81%
Ryan Poehling	67	Depth Forward	36 P · 75 GP	$1.90M	$3.68M	B+$1.8M	80%

Chemistry

Top connection: Mavrik Bourque · 7 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Justin’s goals

Creates for

goals Justin assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 3 G · 2 A · 11 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

1P

1G 0A

@ PIT 03-28

1G 0A · 1 shots · 15:55 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 03-29

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:37 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:16 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 0A · 3 shots · 16:29 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:43 TOI

vs CGY

1P

1G 0A

vs CGY 04-07

1G 0A · 1 shots · 16:16 TOI

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs MIN 04-09

0G 1A · 0 shots · 17:24 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:16 TOI

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:04 TOI

@ BUF

2P

1G 1A

@ BUF 04-15

1G 1A · 2 shots · 17:18 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)283 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 6 of 14 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 54 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2024-25	Dallas Stars	5	0	1	1	1
2025-26	Dallas Stars	81	14	16	30	1
Career	1 team	86	14	17	31	2