Regular season

Mavrik Bourque

Nashville Predators · C · #22

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 41 points and honest two-way play

HT: 5'11"
WT: 187 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Plessisville, CAN
Draft: 2020 DAL · R1 #30

71Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6262pctl

5757pctl

5656pctl

4545pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5060pctl

0.2467pctl

0.2654pctl

1.866pctl

+677pctl

555pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

7.1%74pctl

2.1265pctl

0.1667pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3743pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

45.3%24pctl

D-Zone FO %?

48.7%47pctl

2.927pctl

0.2933pctl

1:0854pctl

0:1236pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 13h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

53.4%80pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.0%52pctl

O-zone deployment?

46%34pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.5 min54pctl

Support received?

18.4 min18pctl

D-zone deployment?

54%66pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1071pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.1568pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3762pctl

1.02×70pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm47pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.0%54pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1161 EV min

General Offense

6.7272

7.1839

Shot Setups/60?

1.4585

Chance Setups/60?

1.2486

Primary Contributions/60?

8.1676

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6271

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1069

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.0386

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.6286

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3185

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.5056

Rush Offense/60?

7.2342

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7255

0.8354

0.5290

Deflections/60?

1.2945

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0018

Entries Finished/60?

0.6240

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4143

Entry → Chance %?

67%60

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.7723

0.3664

0.4114

Retrieval Success %?

47%87

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0033

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

2.5340

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0578

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.95M

cap hit

$4.78M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mavrik Bourque	71	Middle-Six Engine	41 P · 82 GP	$0.95M	$4.78M	A+$3.8M	this player
Justin Sourdif	68	Depth Forward	35 P · 78 GP	$0.82M	$3.94M	A+$3.1M	85%
Alex Newhook	70	Depth Forward	25 P · 42 GP	$2.90M	$4.50M	B+$1.6M	84%
Mikael Backlund	71	Middle-Six Engine	43 P · 82 GP	$4.50M	$4.78M	C+$0.3M	82%
Logan Stankoven	75	Middle-Six Engine	44 P · 81 GP	$0.81M	$5.99M	A++$5.2M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jason Robertson · 10 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Mavrik’s goals

Creates for

goals Mavrik assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

9 pts · 6 G · 3 A · 19 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

3P

2G 1A

@ PIT 03-28

2G 1A · 2 shots · 19:02 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:02 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:15 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:59 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:51 TOI

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:16 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:00 TOI

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 19:10 TOI

@ TOR

4P

3G 1A

@ TOR 04-13

3G 1A · 7 shots · 15:56 TOI

@ BUF

1P

1G 0A

@ BUF 04-15

1G 0A · 1 shots · 17:06 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)323 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 10 of 20 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 25 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 32 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Dallas Stars	1	0	0	0	0
2024-25	Dallas Stars	73	11	14	25	6
2025-26	Dallas Stars	82	20	21	41	6
Career	1 team	156	31	35	66	12