Regular season

Erik Cernak

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #81

Third-pair DDepth Defenseman?99 blocks in 61 games of hard minutes

HT: 6'4"
WT: 230 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: R
From: Kosice, SVK
Draft: 2015 LAK · R2 #43

67Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4141pctl

4747pctl

2727pctl

7070pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.1823pctl

0.0546pctl

0.1320pctl

0.930pctl

+359pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.4%10pctl

0.7513pctl

0.1563pctl

Def Suppression?

0.9390pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.6276pctl

5.5285pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

6.773pctl

6.391pctl

0.2757pctl

0:0332pctl

2:3886pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 37 GP tracked · 11h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.8%75pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.7%42pctl

O-zone deployment?

41%19pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min65pctl

Support received?

16.8 min67pctl

D-zone deployment?

59%81pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0212pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2619pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.073pctl

1.07×91pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.31/gm21pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.0%29pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 911 EV min

General Offense

3.2944

2.3723

Shot Setups/60?

0.6637

Chance Setups/60?

0.5944

Primary Contributions/60?

3.9541

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4061

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0032

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2629

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1345

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0035

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0020

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6548

Rush Offense/60?

4.6125

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.2033

0.0720

0.0026

Deflections/60?

0.2079

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0032

Entries Finished/60?

0.1323

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0019

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.2431

0.3333

1.9137

Retrieval Success %?

15%41

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0037

Exit Success %?

0%37

Forechecking

0.5971

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.20M

cap hit

$3.91M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Erik Cernak	67	Depth Defenseman	11 P · 61 GP	$5.20M	$3.91M	D−$1.3M	this player
Jacob Middleton	67	Depth Defenseman	16 P · 75 GP	$4.35M	$3.91M	C−$0.4M	93%
Trevor van Riemsdyk	68	Depth Defenseman	14 P · 68 GP	$3.00M	$4.20M	B+$1.2M	90%
Tyler Kleven	65	Depth Defenseman	18 P · 70 GP	$1.60M	$3.35M	B+$1.8M	85%
Olli Maatta	64	Depth Defenseman	15 P · 43 GP	$3.50M	$3.09M	C−$0.4M	84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Ryan McDonagh · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Erik’s goals

Creates for

goals Erik assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 1 G · 0 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:49 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 5 shots · 15:58 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:21 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:27 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:58 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:22 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 22:05 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:37 TOI

vs DET

1P

1G 0A

vs DET 04-13

1G 0A · 2 shots · 19:42 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:53 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)237 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 2 of 3 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 10 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 99 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Tampa Bay Lightning	58	5	11	16	25
2019-20	Tampa Bay Lightning	67	5	7	12	11
2020-21	Tampa Bay Lightning	46	5	13	18	8
2021-22	Tampa Bay Lightning	55	1	12	13	7
2022-23	Tampa Bay Lightning	70	2	14	16	8
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	69	2	11	13	5
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	76	3	18	21	29
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	61	3	8	11	3
Career	1 team	502	26	94	120	96