Regular season

Emil Lilleberg

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #78

Depth DHeavy Hitter?96 hits (6.7/60) - punishes the forecheck

HT: 6'3"
WT: 215 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Sarpsborg, NOR
Draft: 2021 ARI · R4 #107

58Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5252pctl

3636pctl

2121pctl

2626pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.2444pctl

0.0867pctl

0.1629pctl

0.930pctl

+1585pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.4%10pctl

0.467pctl

0.0832pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3134pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.9016pctl

3.1117pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

4.012pctl

6.792pctl

0.147pctl

0:0217pctl

1:3755pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 31 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.3%71pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.7%69pctl

O-zone deployment?

53%65pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.0 min24pctl

Support received?

16.4 min80pctl

D-zone deployment?

47%35pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2114pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1515pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.27/gm31pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.0%53pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 783 EV min

General Offense

3.2943

2.4527

Shot Setups/60?

0.4619

Chance Setups/60?

0.4629

Primary Contributions/60?

3.7536

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2334

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0032

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2324

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0832

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0877

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0843

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2326

Rush Offense/60?

4.5224

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.2339

0.4680

0.1578

Deflections/60?

0.0855

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0032

Entries Finished/60?

0.3869

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3186

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.1429

0.2322

1.9237

Retrieval Success %?

11%26

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Exit Success %?

0%38

Forechecking

0.2329

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.82M

cap hit

$1.70M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$0.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Emil Lilleberg	58	Heavy Hitter	12 P · 50 GP	$0.82M	$1.70M	B+$0.9M	this player
Niko Mikkola	57	Depth Defenseman	11 P · 68 GP	$2.50M	$1.51M	D−$1.0M	85%
Nick DeSimone	58	Depth Defenseman	8 P · 40 GP	$0.80M	$1.70M	B+$0.9M	85%
Nick Perbix	59	Depth Defenseman	13 P · 79 GP	$2.75M	$1.91M	D−$0.8M	85%
Ryker Evans	58	Depth Defenseman	17 P · 67 GP	$2.05M	$1.70M	C−$0.3M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jake Guentzel · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Emil’s goals

Creates for

goals Emil assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 1 G · 2 A · 7 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NSH

1P

0G 1A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 1A · 1 shots · 17:34 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:17 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:42 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 21:25 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:58 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:55 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:43 TOI

@ BOS

1P

1G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

1G 0A · 2 shots · 21:03 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:49 TOI

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 1A · 1 shots · 16:20 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)151 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 2 of 4 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 5 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 47 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	37	0	5	5	-15
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	76	1	18	19	-1
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	50	4	8	12	15
Career	1 team	163	5	31	36	-1